The history of the U.S. economy is a long story of ups and downs, resilience, and transformation. The period between 1870 and 1970, often called the “Special Century,” turned the United States into the world’s leading superpower, but today it is facing several serious challenges.
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, technological breakthroughs such as electricity, transportation, and communication completely transformed American living standards.
According to economist Robert Gordon, this period witnessed unprecedented levels of productivity and economic growth.
After World War II, the United States emerged as the only dominant global economic power and successfully established the idea of the “American Dream.”
Current Economic Indicators (2025–2026):
Inflation Rate: 3.3% (March 2026), the highest level in 2 years
GDP Growth Rate: 2.0% – 2.4% (2% in 2025, projected 2.4% for 2026)
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (labor market stable but showing signs of slowing)
National Debt: $39+ trillion (now over 101% of GDP)
Interest Rates: 3.50% – 3.75% (Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts due to inflation concerns)
Economists have identified several key factors behind this emerging “decline”:
Rising tensions with Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have led to sharp increases in fuel and electricity prices, with gas prices rising by as much as 21.2%.
President Trump’s new tariff regime has increased import duties from 2.1% to 11.7%, with more than 50% of the burden falling on consumers.
At the domestic level, growing social and economic inequality has significantly weakened the middle class.
Warren Buffett has warned that the ratio of the stock market to the overall economy (Buffett Indicator) has reached around 230%, suggesting that investors may be “playing with fire.”
Robert Gordon believes that the “genie” of high growth may not return, and the slowdown in productivity could mark the beginning of a prolonged period of stagnation.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has warned that the U.S. is “badly unprepared” for its next recession due to historically high levels of debt.
Hussein Malik of J.P. Morgan estimates a 35% probability of a recession in 2026, although he believes that investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could provide some support to the markets.